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So what has happened in the markets recently?

Markets have rallied following the G20 meeting where Trump and Xi agreed to restart negotiations and place additional tariffs on hold, whilst global central banks have added fuel to the fire by promising easing measures in the months to come.

The S&P/ASX 200 was up over 1.5%, lagging the U.S. S&P 500’s 4.39% return. The S&P 500 breached the 3,000 point mark as it continues to hit new highs. The Euro Stoxx 50 also gained 3.5% and China’s CSI 300 index was up 4.44%. Commodities joined in the rally despite weak global economic growth data, driven by a rally in precious metals such as gold.

Given dovish comments from central banks, bond markets are pricing in a definite U.S. rate cut at the end of July, followed by potentially three more cuts by the end of 2020. This has resulted in a steepening of the yield curve as shorter dated yields fall whilst longer dated yields rise. Despite the steepening, the yield curve remains inverted.

The Australian Dollar continues to hover around 70 U.S. cents, supported by some weakness in the U.S. Dollar driven by the U.S. rate cut outlook.

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